Why? Social Networking could soon pass search. It's often said these days that Google and Facebook are major rivals, but how could that be if one is in search and the other, social networking? It’s funny, I was at a cocktail party full of Digital folks last week, namely some of Chicago's Top Digital attorneys and we were remarking how "Social Media" is over and how anybody who is a "Social Consultant" is changing their title now to something else more in vogue. It’s good for a laugh and I’m guessing Mobile/iPhone App Consultant is next. It is for us anyway, the difference being , we actually do produce iPhone apps. Nevertheless, I don’t agree that SM is over by any means but the hype has worn off as companies begin to understand its value and determine its monetization values. But what does it mean in the big picture? That picture is very interesting to look at. Check this out.
Marshall Kirkpatrick reports that traffic analyst firm Hitwise provided one very clear clue tonight when it published new numbers for web user activity in Australia. For perhaps the first time ever, social networking sites have surpassed the traffic search engines receive, Hitwise says. There is reason to question the company's categorization of web traffic, but the trend is worth examining none the less.
Social networking climbed fast this year, and Hitwise says it just peaked over search for a few days during the communication frenzy of Christmas. Take that, Larry and Sergey - Mark and Ev are right behind you.
The biggest problem with Hitwise's numbers is that the company appears to include YouTube in the "social networks and forums" category that is challenging search. That's a questionable categorization of (Google's) YouTube, a site that some people call the 2nd-largest search engine on the web. A person certainly can use YouTube as a social network - but we'd guess that far more people use it as a search engine. If YouTube is growing (and this analysis says it is) then search is growing. You wouldn't think search would have much room to grow, but YouTube demonstrates nicely that there can emerge new kinds of search at any time. Some people argue that real-time search is the next type that will emerge as a growth industry for the search market. Others point to social search and that kind of amalgamation could throw our search vs. social networking equation entirely!
The arguable mischaracterization of YouTube seems to throw a big monkey-wrench in Hitwise's usually fabulous market analysis, but as a general trend social network is undoubtedly growing. At 2% of web use, according again to Hitwise, YouTube is a major player - but lets think about the rise of actual social networking sites relative to search.
What would it mean if social networking over-took search in terms of sheer visits online? It would mark a sea-change on the internet. No longer would our dominant use of the web be seeking out web-pages built by HTML web-masters! Now we would all be publishing tiny little updates that perhaps only our friends and family care about. We'd be subscribing, more than we ever did by RSS, to syndicated updates from organizations of interest, large and small. It would be (perhaps will be) a very different era and, to be frank, it's going to be harder to monetize. There will be privacy battles. There will be new platforms for innovation.
It's a pretty big deal. Things will really change if current trends continue and social networking rises to the top. That's not as clear as this traffic analyst firm argues that it is, but it could happen. And that's a big reason why Google and Facebook are rivals.
Hi Mark, nice read. Not to hijack the topic but Google's sweet spot is advertising and they are moving fast to where the web is going: your phone. "Personal" computers in the form of desktops and laptops are becoming a relic of the past. With cloud computing you don't need a hard drive, and 1G processors have enough power to do 95% of what you want to do. Android is poised to become the smartphone standard which puts Google in the driver's seat for their sweet spot, which is advertising.
To see the future, go to a local McDonald's and watch a group of teenagers. Their phones are out, and they're texting, twittering, updating their facebook pages and game playing. They barely talk to each other but they are all connected. This is great for the social networks but with Google running Android you can be sure they are shaping the experience and poised to benefit from it.
Posted by: Wayne D | January 27, 2010 at 07:55 AM